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Hide all answers View all answers Print Try the Quiz There is a village that has five fortune tellers.The first fortune teller's prediction has 77 % chance of being correct. The second has 57 % chance of being correct, the third 44 %, the fourth 28 %, and the fifth 5 %. If you were trying to get the best prediction of your future, which fortune teller would you go to? • first • second • third • fourth • fifth Answer: fifth Solution:
The fifth fortune teller would allow you to get the best prediction of your future. The fifth fortune teller predicts with only 5 % accuracy. So, there is a 95 % chance of the fifth fortune teller being wrong. If you consider the opposite of the fifth fortune teller's predictions, then you get the prediction of your future with 95 % accuracy. This is higher than the accuracy of the other four fortune tellers. |