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The Best Fortune Teller
Contributed by Andrew Kim

puzzle : fortune teller

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There is a village that has five fortune tellers.

The first fortune teller's prediction has 77 % chance of being correct. The second has 57 % chance of being correct, the third 44 %, the fourth 28 %, and the fifth 5 %.  

If you were trying to get the best prediction of your future, which fortune teller would you go to?
• first
• second
• third
• fourth
• fifth
Answer: fifth

Solution:
The fifth fortune teller would allow you to get the best prediction of your future.

The fifth fortune teller predicts with only 5 % accuracy. So, there is a 95 % chance of the fifth fortune teller being wrong.

If you consider the opposite of the fifth fortune teller's predictions, then you get the prediction of your future with 95 % accuracy. This is higher than the accuracy of the other four fortune tellers.



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