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The Best Fortune Teller
Contributed by Andrew Kim
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There is a village that has five fortune tellers.
The first fortune teller's prediction has 83 % chance of being correct. The second has 63 % chance of being correct, the third 44 %, the fourth 30 %, and the fifth 10 %.
If you were trying to get the best prediction of your future, which fortune teller would you go to?
The fifth fortune teller would allow you to get the best prediction of your future.
The fifth fortune teller predicts with only 10 % accuracy. So, there is a 90 % chance of the fifth fortune teller being wrong.
If you consider the opposite of the fifth fortune teller's predictions, then you get the prediction of your future with 90 % accuracy. This is higher than the accuracy of the other four fortune tellers.
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